What a lifetime income projection actually tells you
A lifetime income projection is a year-by-year model of every dollar coming into and going out of a household from now until the end of the plan. It starts with what the household has today — savings, investments, Social Security estimates, pensions, real estate, other income — and maps those sources against expected spending, adjusted for inflation, taxes, and the uncertainty of market returns.
The output is not a single number. It is a range of outcomes — best case, worst case, and everything in between — expressed as a probability that the money lasts as long as the household needs it to. A plan that succeeds in ninety percent of simulated scenarios is in a very different position from one that succeeds in sixty percent.
Most households have never seen this kind of projection. They have a rough sense of their savings, a vague idea of what Social Security will pay, and an assumption that it will all work out. Sometimes it will. The projection's job is to tell you whether 'sometimes' is ninety-five percent of the time or fifty percent of the time — and what you can do today to move the number in the right direction.
What working with us looks like
First meeting — gathering the inputs
We meet in person and collect every income source, every expense line, every account balance, and every obligation. We pull your Social Security estimates, review any pension options, and note the timing of major future expenses — a mortgage payoff, a college bill, a downsizing. By the end of the hour we have the raw inputs for the model.
A written lifetime income projection
You get a written projection showing the probability of success under multiple spending scenarios, the impact of different Social Security claiming ages, and the withdrawal strategy that gives the household the best chance of lasting. The projection is yours to keep whether or not you hire us.
A note on fit
When this might not be right for you
A lifetime income projection is not the right tool for every situation. Honest disqualifiers:
- Households in their twenties or thirties with no specific retirement date in mind. The projection becomes useful when the timeline starts to narrow.
- Anyone looking for a guarantee that the plan will work. The projection is a probability assessment, not a promise. The future is uncertain by definition.
- Households whose income is fully covered by guaranteed sources — a pension plus Social Security that exceeds spending. The projection will confirm what you already know.
Frequently asked questions
What is a lifetime income projection?
A lifetime income projection is a year-by-year model of every income source and expense across a household's full expected lifespan. It incorporates Social Security, pensions, portfolio withdrawals, rental income, taxes, and inflation to show the probability that the money lasts. The output is a range of outcomes, not a single number.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
Sequence-of-returns risk is the danger that early-year market losses permanently reduce a portfolio that is also being drawn down for spending. Two portfolios with the same average return over thirty years can produce very different outcomes for a retiree depending on whether the bad years happen early or late. The sequence matters more than the average when you are withdrawing.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation in financial planning?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs a financial plan through hundreds or thousands of randomized market-return sequences to produce a probability distribution of outcomes. Instead of a single projection assuming a fixed return, it shows the percentage of scenarios in which the money lasts — and the percentage in which it doesn't. It is a stress test, not a prediction.
How much income will I need in retirement?
The common rule of thumb is seventy to eighty percent of pre-retirement income, but the real answer depends on your specific spending pattern, your health expectations, your housing situation, and your goals. Some households spend more in early retirement — travel, deferred maintenance, helping adult children — and less later. The projection models your actual expenses, not a rule of thumb.
How does inflation affect retirement income?
Inflation reduces purchasing power every year. At three percent inflation, a dollar today is worth about fifty-five cents in twenty years. A retirement income that feels comfortable at sixty-five can feel tight at seventy-five and inadequate at eighty-five if the plan does not account for rising costs. Every honest projection models inflation as an ongoing drag across the full timeline.
How often should I update my income projection?
At minimum, annually — and any time a major life event changes the inputs. A job change, a health event, a market swing, an inheritance, or a change in spending plans can shift the probability meaningfully. We update the projection at every in-person review so the household always knows where it stands.